Demystifying Data

03 - Risk, Uncertainty and Knowledge

2023-12-07

Knowledge

Donald Rumsfeld


Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know.

We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.

But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.

Mark Twain


It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble…

… It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.

Risk vs Uncertainty

Frank Knight - Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921)

Risk


Quantifiable randomness


Probability etc.

Uncertainty


Lack of quantifiable knowledge


Fundamental ignorance

Psychology

Ellsberg Paradox

1R: Left Red €100

1B: Left Black €100

1R: Left Red €100

2R: Right Red €100

1R: Red €100

2R: Black €100

1R: Red and Black €100

2R: Black and Yellow €100

What Do We Do?

What are we dealing with?

Quantify risks

Manage uncertainties

Summary

Thank You


mcooney@describedata.com


https://kaybenleroll.github.io/data_workshops/talk_cirdas_master_202311/